When analyzing any new investment, including value stock picks, one key question we ask early on is, “What can this cost us if something goes wrong?” (You can learn more about our value-investing approach to selecting stocks in our new free report, “Canadian Stock Market Basics: How to Trade Stocks and Make Good Investments in Canada.”)

There is no simple rule for calculating cost-if-something-goes-wrong. It takes common sense and guesswork. For instance, to determine the cost of a warm winter to a ski-hill operator, we need to see how many ski centres it operates, and if they are in the same or different weather systems. In fact, geographical diversification plays a prime role in most calculations of the cost-if-something-goes-wrong.

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Goodwill: Consider the cost when looking for value stock picks

In analyzing a company’s financial statements, a key concern, and a potential pitfall for investors, is the amount of goodwill that it carries as an asset on its balance sheet. Goodwill is an accounting entry that reflects the price that the company paid for its acquisitions, minus the value of the tangible assets, like land and equipment, that it received as part of the acquisition. The term means “value as a going concern.”

In the right circumstances, goodwill can be extremely important to value stock picks, especially if it is “off-the-books” goodwill — that is, goodwill that a company developed through its own efforts, which does not appear on the balance sheet. Examples include the value of the company’s brand, or the reputation and relationship that it has built up with customers over the years.

Goodwill writeoffs can have big consequences

Goodwill acquired in an unwise acquisition can lose value overnight. When that happens, the company has to write it off against earnings. At worst, the company might have to write off most, if not all, of its goodwill.

If that writeoff wipes out most of the company’s shareholders’ equity, and/or most of a year’s earnings, it can devastate the value stock pick’s share price. In most cases, that’s a cost-if-something-goes-wrong to avoid at all costs.

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