Topic: Cannabis Investing

Cannabis sales could add to this REIT’s appeal

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Cannabis-Connected

Canada’s largest owner of shopping centres, this REIT is adding more office and residential space as online shopping cuts into retail sales. 

The company is focusing its efforts on Canada’s six largest urban markets, which should account for 90% of its revenue by 2020. At the same time, it is well-positioned to benefit from marijuana legalization: it continues to sign retail leases in Alberta and Ontario. The units of the REIT are trading at less than 14 times projected cash flow and yield a high 5.8%.


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RIOCAN REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, $24.83, Toronto symbol REI.UN, (Units outstanding: 312.7 million; Market cap: $7.8 billion; www.riocan.com), owns all or part of 267 shopping centres and other rental properties in Canada. That includes 17 projects in development. The overall occupancy rate is a high 96.8%.

RioCan’s revenue fell 9.9%, from $1.14 billion in 2013 to $1.03 billion in 2014. That’s mainly because it sold its U.S. malls. Revenue then improved to $1.09 billion in 2015, and climbed to $1.16 billion in 2017.

The trust’s overall cash flow rose 32.2%, from $470.8 million in 2013 to $622.4 million in 2015. Due to more units outstanding, cash flow per unit rose at a slower rate of 24.4%, from $1.56 to $1.94. Cash flow then declined to $1.68 a unit (or a total of $547.9 million) in 2016, but recovered to $1.79 a unit (or $584.6 million) in 2017.

Online shopping continues to hurt demand for retail space at the trust’s malls. In response, it has begun to add office and residential units to its properties.

For example, under its RioCan Living brand, the REIT has 17.2 million square feet of residential rental units under development. Most of them are in high-density areas close to transit lines. The trust expects residential units will eventually supply 10% of its revenue.

As well, the REIT plans to focus on six major urban markets: Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. As part of that strategy, it will sell around 100 properties for a total of $1.5 billion (net of transaction costs). When it completes the plan in 2020, those six cities will account for 90% of its rental revenue.

As a result of its recent property sales, RioCan’s revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2018, fell 2.7%, to $277.8 million from $285.6 million a year earlier. Overall cash flow declined 0.9%, to $144.3 million from $146.6 million. Due to fewer units outstanding, cash flow per unit gained 2.2%, to $0.46 from $0.45.

RioCan’s total debt was $6.0 billion as of June 30, 2018. That’s a high 77% of its market cap. However, the trust staggers the maturities of these mortgages and debentures so that it only has to pay back a manageable portion each year. It also held cash of $58.4 million.

The REIT recently raised its monthly distribution by 2.1%. Investors now receive $0.12 a unit instead of $0.1175. The new annual rate of $1.44 yields a high 5.8%. In the latest quarter, RioCan paid out 78.0% of its cash flow. That’s below its target payout ratio of 80.0%.

The units trade at 13.7 times the likely 2018 cash flow of $1.82 a unit. That’s a reasonable multiple in light of the trust’s high-quality properties and tenants.

RioCan is also in a strong position to profit from the upcoming legalization of recreational marijuana. It has already signed leases for 15 retail stores in Alberta. Moreover, marijuana retailers can expect to pay premium rental rates per square foot.

The trust expects to see higher demand from cannabis sellers now that the Ontario government will let private stores sell cannabis instead of government-owned liquor stores. That should spur demand for space in RioCan’s high-quality malls. The government’s online store will for now be the exclusive seller of cannabis online.

RioCan is a buy.

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