Topic: ETFs

Invest in the recovery of the Thai economy


iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF LISTEN:  

The Thai economy is emerging from the slump caused by the political turmoil of 2013-15. During that period, a military coup ousted the country’s prime minister and installed a military-led government.

As a result, economic growth fell sharply as exports and tourism plummeted. Today, the political situation continues to stabilize—exports have picked up, tourists have returned and the government has ramped up its infrastructure development program.

ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED ETF $89 (New York symbol THD; TSI Network ETF Rating: Aggressive; Market cap: $411.1 million) tracks the performance of a broad basket of publicly listed Thai companies. The fund caps the size of individual holdings in order to limit the importance of single issuers to the portfolio.

The ETF holds a portfolio of 127 stocks, but the top 10 make up 49% of total assets. Financials (27%), Industrials (18%), Oil and Gas (16%), and Consumer Services (14%) are the main areas represented in the portfolio.

The fund’s top holdings are PTT PCL (oil refining, 9%), CP All PCL (food retail, 7%), Siam Commercial Bank (6%), KasikornBank (6%), Airports of Thailand (5%), Advanced Info Service (telecommunications, 4%), PTT Global Chemical (4%), Siam Cement (3%), PTT Exploration and Production (oil and gas, 3%) and Central Pattana (real estate, 2%).

The ETF launched in March 2008 and has an MER of 0.63%. This medium-sized fund holds $405.3 million in assets and provides good liquidity, with an average of $6.9 million in units traded daily.

The fund pays dividends in June and December. For the past 12-month period, those payments amounted to $2.13 per unit for a yield of 2.4%. The ETF has a p/e of 16.8 on its forecast earnings for the next 12 months.

Thailand is emerging from a period of political turmoil. During that crisis, former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office in 2014 and the military took control of the government. Former army commander Prayut Chaocha was then named prime minister.

Thailand has had 19 military coups since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932. The latest round of elections, which have been postponed several times, are now scheduled for November 2018.

Since the recent crisis, Thai economic growth has lagged behind that of other Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the economy is improving as exports and tourism continue to recover and government-led infrastructure development plans gain momentum. The country’s GDP likely grew 3.7% in 2017 and should rise 3.3% for 2018.

Inflation remains low at around 1.0%, with stable energy and food prices. The Thai Central Bank has kept interest rates at just 5% since April 2015.

Government finances are sound, with a manageable budget deficit and a public-sector debt/GDP ratio of only 42%. (Compared to the average 119% for G7 countries). The country holds an investment-grade credit score with all the major rating agencies.

The Thai currency, the Baht, as a barometer of political and economic conditions, has largely recovered after reaching a 10-year low against the U.S. dollar in October 2015.

The Thailand Capped ETF has delivered a strong performance over the past 2 years as stability returned to the country. Over the past year the ETF gained 28.7%. That’s only slightly below the MSCI Emerging Market Index, which invests globally.

For aggressive investors that want an exposure to Thai equities, the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is a sound choice.

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