BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY $7.73 (Toronto symbol BIR; TSINetwork Rating: Speculative) (403-261-6401; www.birchcliffenergy.com; Shares outstanding: 152.3 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion; No dividends paid) develops, produces and explores for oil and gas, mainly in the Peace River Arch area near the Alberta/B.C. border. About 85% of its output is gas. The remaining 15% is oil.
In the three months ended December 31, 2014, Birchcliff’s cash flow per share rose 17.1%, to $0.41 from $0.35 a year earlier. The company raised its daily output by 32.8%, offsetting lower oil prices and boosting its cash flow.
Like many oil and gas producers, Birchcliff plans to cut back on exploration and development spending. This year, it will devote $266.7 million to this purpose, down from $450.0 million in 2014.
Even with the lower spending, the company’s 2015 output should rise to an average of between 38,000 and 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 33,734 in 2014. But with oil prices now just over $50 U.S. a barrel— and gas prices near five-year lows at $2.64 U.S. per thousand cubic feet—Birchcliff’s per-share cash flow will likely fall 39.4% this year, to $1.23 from $2.03.
The stock now trades at 6.3 times this year’s forecast cash flow per share. That’s reasonable for a company with strong potential to grow when oil and gas prices recover.
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