Topic: Growth Stocks

Moody’s Corp. $72 – New York symbol MCO

MOODY’S CORP. $72 (New York symbol MCO; Conservative Growth Portfolio, Finance sector; Shares outstanding: 273.8 million; Market cap: $19.7 billion; WSSF Rating: Average) provides credit ratings on
securities issued by over 200,000 corporations and government agencies in 100 countries.

Moody’s revenue doubled, from $1.0 billion in 2002 to $2.0 billion in 2006. Revenue should reach $2.3 billion in 2007.

Profits before one-time items shot up from $0.92 a share (total $288.9 million) in 2002 to $2.25 a share ($658.1 million) in 2006.

Much of the company’s recent growth is due to low interest rates. Thanks to lower borrowing costs, many companies now choose to finance expansion or acquisitions with debt instead of equity. Higher volumes of new debt helped increase the need for independent credit ratings.

Right now, securities regulators in the United States recognize just five credit rating providers, including Moody’s. New legislation aimed at opening up this field to more companies could hurt Moody’s 40% share of the credit rating market. But the company’s strong reputation should help it fend off any new competition.

Like Dun & Bradstreet, Moody’s is aggressively expanding its electronic products. Its Moody’s KMV division supplies credit analysis software to over 2,000 banks and insurance companies, and now accounts for 6% of its total revenue.

The stock trades at a high 27.8 times its forecast 2007 profit of $2.59 a share, and 30.0 times cash flow of $2.40 a share. The $0.32 dividend yields 0.4%.

Moody’s is a hold.

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