TRILOGY ENERGY TRUST $5.41 (Toronto symbol TET.UN; SI Rating: Speculative) (403-290-2900; www.trilogyenergy.com; Units outstanding: 95.4 million; Market cap: $516.3 million) holds oil and gas properties in the Kaybob and Grande Prairie areas of central Alberta. Trilogy’s production is weighted approximately 80% toward natural gas and 20% to oil.
In the three months ended September 30, 2008, Trilogy’s production rose 3.1%, to 20,394 barrels of oil equivalent per day, from 19,775 barrels per day a year earlier.
Trilogy’s $325-million debt is somewhat high at 64% of market cap. To conserve cash for debt repayment, the trust has cut its monthly distribution starting in February 2009 by 50%, to $0.05 from $0.10. The new distribution gives the units a current yield of 11.1%. The lower distribution will also reduce the trust’s payout to unitholders to just 40% of cash flow.
Trilogy’s cash flow for 2009 is forecast at $1.62 a unit. The trust’s units trade at 3.3 times that estimate.
Trilogy Energy is a buy.
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