Topic: Growth Stocks

Vast potential of Asia’s online giant comes with sizeable risk

Pat McKeough recently responded to a question from a Member of his Inner Circle regarding Asia’s reigning online giant. The volume of its online and mobile commerce make Alibaba the largest company of its kind in the world. The company’s size and reach promise to keep it competitive.

Nevertheless, Pat cautions that the structure of the company and the nature of the markets in China could create added risk for outside investors. That risk could be compounded by political trends in China that may not prove to be conducive to the fast economic growth of recent decades.   

Q: Hi Pat: What are your thoughts on Alibaba? Thanks.


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A: ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING (ADR), (symbol BABA on New York; www.alibaba.com) raised a total of $25 billion in late 2014 with its IPO, or Initial Public Offering. That figure was a world record for a new issue. Alibaba’s new issue price was $68 a share, but it opened for public trading at $92. The shares are now trading well above the IPO price.

Through its subsidiaries, Alibaba operates as an online and mobile commerce company in China and internationally. It is the largest such company in the world in terms of gross merchandise volume.

The company’s major businesses include Taobao Marketplace (China’s largest online shopping destination); Tmall.com (third-party platform for brands and retailers); Juhuasuan (online group buying marketplace); and Alitrip (online travel booking platform).

The company’s mobile operations should position it to stay competitive and keep growing regardless of fluctuations in the Chinese economy.

Growth stocks: Chinese government may be taking a step backward

On the other hand, Alibaba’s Chinese location adds to its risk. Foreign stock market regulation is far more lax than in North America. Self-dealing by insiders is more common, and close personal connections can go a long way toward offsetting inconvenient investor-protection laws. That’s especially so with Alibaba, which has a complex, interlocking ownership structure.

Recent political events in China also inspire our caution. It appears the country has moved away from the rule-by-committee set-up that was inspired by former leader Deng Xiaoping. It was also focused on fast economic growth. Now it seems China has moved back towards one-man leadership, in the style of Mao Zedong. That’s a step backward from the path that spurred China’s rapid growth of the past few decades.

Some investors feel Alibaba provides an attractive investment alternative to Amazon, which has been a top performer for much of the past decade. That’s an interesting comparison, and we’ll keep a close eye on the stock.

Inner Circle recommendation: For now, we don’t recommend Alibaba.

For our recent report on a Canadian growth stock subject to a foreign takeover bid, read Canadian infrastructure firm accepts Chinese takeover bid.

For our advice on how to make the best of growth stocks, read Growth vs Value Investing: Learn How These Strategies Can Complement Each Other.

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