BONAVISTA ENERGY $8.02 (Toronto symbol BNP; Shares outstanding: 203.8 million; Market cap: $1.7 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Extra Risk; Dividend yield: 5.2%; www.bonavistaenergy.com) explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Its production is 70% gas and 30% oil.
In the three months ended December 31, 2014, Bonavista’s cash flow per share rose 1.6%, to $0.63 from $0.62 a year earlier.
The company’s output gained 14.3%, to 85,810 barrels of oil equivalent a day from 75,072. However, lower oil prices mostly offset the production increase and higher realized gas prices.
Like many producers, Bonavista is cutting back on exploration and development spending. This year, it will devote $310.0 million to this purpose, down from $639.6 million in 2014.
Even with the lower spending, its 2015 output should rise to an average of 82,516 barrels a day from 77,211 in 2014. But with oil prices under $60 U.S. a barrel—and gas prices near five-year lows at $2.59 U.S. per thousand cubic feet—Bonavista’s per-share cash flow will likely fall 29.4% this year, to $1.90 from $2.69 in 2014.
The stock trades at just 4.2 times this year’s forecast cash flow per share. That’s reasonable for a company with strong potential to grow when oil and gas prices recover. As well, the $0.035-a-share monthly dividend, which yields 5.2%, appears safe, even at today’s lower prices.
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