Chances are that the May 2 election results will lead to a period of investor-friendly legislation in Canada, with growth in the economy and a healthy Canadian stock market atmosphere. Just one example: with a Conservative majority in Parliament, for instance, we may soon see higher contribution limits for both RRSPs and Tax-Free Savings Accounts.
Many Canadian stock market investors agree. Still, the Toronto market greeted the largely unexpected election result with a drop of more than 1%, even though the S&P 500 was down just 0.25% this morning. By the end of the day, Toronto was down 1.71%, while the U.S. S&P 500 was down 0.85%.
My view is that this reflects a widely overlooked kinship between the Conservatives and the NDP. Both parties seem to favour small business over big, and big business carries a lot more weight than small on the TSX.
For 40 years, the NDP has been campaigning against “corporate welfare bums” – big businesses that seek government subsidies, regulations that hinder the rise of new competitors, and trade rules that frustrate foreign competitors. The Conservatives are not so strident on the subject, but they do tend to favour open markets and freer competition, rather than favours for big business.
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For instance, the Conservatives are open to allowing foreign ownership of small telecom companies. That new competition could bring down Canadian cellphone rates, which are among the highest in the world. This is the kind of minor reform that helps promote productivity and innovation, and holds down inflation. It won’t hurt big business as a whole. But it will lead to a rise in general prosperity and growth in employment.
As you know, I’ve stayed positive on the long-term outlook for the Canadian stock market over the past couple of years, despite all the horrendous predictions related to the deficit. I did worry that a coalition of the Liberals, NDP and the Bloc would have led to a much bigger federal budget deficit and onerous new taxes. But now that that risk is gone, probably forever.
It seems to me that a majority Conservative government with an NDP opposition was the best possible election result we could imagine. It gives investors reason to be a little more positive on the market outlook.
Do you think yesterday’s election will have a big impact on Canadian investors? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below.
Comments
Gordon
Hello Pat I agree I think we have a good political outcome I feel the PC party will keep a even keel on the economy which should benifit all Business and investors.
Hi Pat,
Canadian voters came close to achieving the political ideal yesterday – a strong two party system. The Conservatives can now get on with governing the country while a strong opposition keeps a close eye on them. Politically, all is well in the True North, Strong and Free.
Pat,
The election outcome may be good for the stock market, but with the dirty tactics used by Harper to eliminate the middle, we are one step toward American-style politics.
I believe the Conservative government was the best choice. Now that they have a majority we can only hope that they don’t let the power go to their heads. They need to continue being a ‘team’ player and must always listen to their opposition with an unbiased mind, as the opposition will continue to have some good ideas worth implementing.
Pat, you made a comment that the Conservatives will allow foreign ownership of small companies. That is disappointing to hear, because where does it end? We must keep Canada owned and governed by Canadians. That is what makes us who we are. Remember, we have one of the strongest and most fiscally responsible banking systems in the world.
Hello Pat,
I think that we live in a much healthier Canada today, with the Bloc decimated like it was. Leyton will have his work cut out for him trying to satisfy the Quebecers who are likely looking for a welfare state.
The West is now finally “in” and with most of Ontario with us, we should be looking at saner times. It will take some time for the Ontarians to get used to a Canada without a strong Liberal party, but hopefully they (you) will get used to it with a good conservative government. I used to live in Ontario in my younger days and we still have contact with good friends there.
I live in the country here in Alberta, and most of my neighbours would be separatists in a flash, if they felt Alberta being taken for granted like we were during the National Energy Program days under Marc Lalonde and Pierre Trudeau.
I am very optimistic about the next four years.
Hello Pat
From the perspective of the economy I think we have a very positive outcome with our Conservative majority and a strong NDP opposition. Growth and Jobs – it’s possible. Glad to have a green voice/conscience elected. Think the Libs will be a long time recovering from events dating back to Chretien era. I think the Conservative NDP marriage has excellent potential . Hopefully Quebec has opted in to Canada. Good to see the back of BQ. Onward and forward!
Perhaps the Conservative majority is good for investors, at least in the short term.
However, I am concerned that in the long term the result will be a further widening of the gap between rich and poor, accompanied by all the social ills that would likely result, including an increase in crime. The conservatives have a history of using tax policy to buy votes, and their tax policy has not been in the interest of the country or the long-term economy.
I have a son who earns well into six figures, and a daughter who earns about a quarter of that. I don’t believe his job is any more useful to society than hers. Yet he has benefited from many of these tax measures of the past few years, while she hasn’t, merely because she isn’t wealthy enough to do so.
You may be right – that the stock market might benefit somewhat from having a Conservative majority government in power – after all they are giving big business another huge and unnecessary tax break,
but the NDP – even now with over 100 MPs – will have less influence in parliament than ever and will now be primarily irrelevant in the decison-making process.
I admit, however, I am appalled that the Canadian electorate would give Harper a majority mandate considering the atocities that he has continuously inflicted upon Canadian democracy
I think we can look forward to an even better economy now that the “big business haters” (Libs and NDP) can no longer unite to defeat the government. If it isn’t businesses of all kinds that sign the paychecks and keep things running, who to they think it is?
Regarding Don’s comments about his rich son benefitting from tax cuts more than his not so rich daughter-in-law, why shouldn’t he? It’s the rich that pay much more tax, so why shouldn’t they benefit more?
The wealthy will always pay more taxes, always have, just because they have the means to. You’re just saying they should pay less because they pay more. So how much less, exactly? And how much more should the less wealthy pay to make up the difference?
You can argue all you like about that, but there’s no right answer.
I believe that a conservative majority is bad for Canada. Harper and his Reformistes are known to be far too much to the right than the average Canadian.The NDP will have little to say and Harper will just run through what he believes in. I am very uncomfortable with the pro-Israel stand, its not the choice of the Canadian majority.
Its time that Canada’s electoral system changes and that all Canadians are represented in our Federal Government. Harper and his Reformistes have far less than 50% of the votes, how can they represent Canada?
The dismissal of the Bloc will fire up the PQ for the next provincial election that the Liberals will loose, we are going to have a lot of confrontation in Quebec if the NDP does not deliver.
Canada is not a rightwing country, it might be good for the stock market but its terrible for CANADA.
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Hello Pat I agree I think we have a good political outcome I feel the PC party will keep a even keel on the economy which should benifit all Business and investors.
I was upset that the Harper Govt never stepped in to save Nortel, but I must concede, I think we have lucked out, with this political arrangement.
Hi Pat,
Canadian voters came close to achieving the political ideal yesterday – a strong two party system. The Conservatives can now get on with governing the country while a strong opposition keeps a close eye on them. Politically, all is well in the True North, Strong and Free.
Pat,
The election outcome may be good for the stock market, but with the dirty tactics used by Harper to eliminate the middle, we are one step toward American-style politics.
I believe the Conservative government was the best choice. Now that they have a majority we can only hope that they don’t let the power go to their heads. They need to continue being a ‘team’ player and must always listen to their opposition with an unbiased mind, as the opposition will continue to have some good ideas worth implementing.
Pat, you made a comment that the Conservatives will allow foreign ownership of small companies. That is disappointing to hear, because where does it end? We must keep Canada owned and governed by Canadians. That is what makes us who we are. Remember, we have one of the strongest and most fiscally responsible banking systems in the world.
Rodger
Hello Pat,
I think that we live in a much healthier Canada today, with the Bloc decimated like it was. Leyton will have his work cut out for him trying to satisfy the Quebecers who are likely looking for a welfare state.
The West is now finally “in” and with most of Ontario with us, we should be looking at saner times. It will take some time for the Ontarians to get used to a Canada without a strong Liberal party, but hopefully they (you) will get used to it with a good conservative government. I used to live in Ontario in my younger days and we still have contact with good friends there.
I live in the country here in Alberta, and most of my neighbours would be separatists in a flash, if they felt Alberta being taken for granted like we were during the National Energy Program days under Marc Lalonde and Pierre Trudeau.
I am very optimistic about the next four years.
Hello Pat
From the perspective of the economy I think we have a very positive outcome with our Conservative majority and a strong NDP opposition. Growth and Jobs – it’s possible. Glad to have a green voice/conscience elected. Think the Libs will be a long time recovering from events dating back to Chretien era. I think the Conservative NDP marriage has excellent potential . Hopefully Quebec has opted in to Canada. Good to see the back of BQ. Onward and forward!
Hello Pat,
Perhaps the Conservative majority is good for investors, at least in the short term.
However, I am concerned that in the long term the result will be a further widening of the gap between rich and poor, accompanied by all the social ills that would likely result, including an increase in crime. The conservatives have a history of using tax policy to buy votes, and their tax policy has not been in the interest of the country or the long-term economy.
I have a son who earns well into six figures, and a daughter who earns about a quarter of that. I don’t believe his job is any more useful to society than hers. Yet he has benefited from many of these tax measures of the past few years, while she hasn’t, merely because she isn’t wealthy enough to do so.
You may be right – that the stock market might benefit somewhat from having a Conservative majority government in power – after all they are giving big business another huge and unnecessary tax break,
but the NDP – even now with over 100 MPs – will have less influence in parliament than ever and will now be primarily irrelevant in the decison-making process.
I admit, however, I am appalled that the Canadian electorate would give Harper a majority mandate considering the atocities that he has continuously inflicted upon Canadian democracy
Hi Pat-
I think we can look forward to an even better economy now that the “big business haters” (Libs and NDP) can no longer unite to defeat the government. If it isn’t businesses of all kinds that sign the paychecks and keep things running, who to they think it is?
Regarding Don’s comments about his rich son benefitting from tax cuts more than his not so rich daughter-in-law, why shouldn’t he? It’s the rich that pay much more tax, so why shouldn’t they benefit more?
Dick:
I’m sure you’ll never read this, but anyway…
The wealthy will always pay more taxes, always have, just because they have the means to. You’re just saying they should pay less because they pay more. So how much less, exactly? And how much more should the less wealthy pay to make up the difference?
You can argue all you like about that, but there’s no right answer.
I believe that a conservative majority is bad for Canada. Harper and his Reformistes are known to be far too much to the right than the average Canadian.The NDP will have little to say and Harper will just run through what he believes in. I am very uncomfortable with the pro-Israel stand, its not the choice of the Canadian majority.
Its time that Canada’s electoral system changes and that all Canadians are represented in our Federal Government. Harper and his Reformistes have far less than 50% of the votes, how can they represent Canada?
The dismissal of the Bloc will fire up the PQ for the next provincial election that the Liberals will loose, we are going to have a lot of confrontation in Quebec if the NDP does not deliver.
Canada is not a rightwing country, it might be good for the stock market but its terrible for CANADA.