IMPERIAL OIL $49.32 (Toronto symbol IMO; Shares outstanding: 847.6 million; Market cap: $41.9 billion; TSINetwork Rating: Average; Dividend yield: 1.1%; www.imperialoil.ca) is a major integrated oil company with oil sands projects in Alberta and conventional oil and gas operations across Western Canada. It also operates three refineries and 1,700 Esso gas stations.
Oil prices hit a high of $147 U.S. a barrel in July 2008, but then plummeted to a low of $32 in December 2008 as the recession took hold. Prices climbed back to over $100 in 2010, and remained near there until mid-2014 when oil plunged from $110 to less than half that price by the end of the year. Oil is now at $60 a barrel.
Strong oil prices for most of 2014 let Imperial report cash flow of $5.3 billion, or $6.26 a share. This year, low oil prices will likely push cash flow down by more than half, to $2.6 billion, or $3.02 a share.
Still, Imperial plans to spend $4.0 billion on upgrades, mostly at Kearl and Cold Lake. That’s down from $5.7 billion in 2014, but the Kearl expansion is now at 86% of full production.
The stock trades at 16.3 times projected 2015 cash flow of $3.02 a share. However, that could reach $4.66 in 2016, on higher output, even if oil stays low, and it trades at just 10.6 times that forecast.
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