Topic: How To Invest

Q: Hi Pat, just wanted to get your thoughts on Canada Goose (GOOS on Toronto). Thanks.

A: Canada Goose Holdings, $47.03, symbol GOOS on Toronto (Shares outstanding: 37.4 million; Market cap: $5.1 billion; www.canadagoose.com), is a Toronto-based manufacturer of luxury apparel, best-known for its iconic winter jackets. On March 15, 2017, it first sold shares to the public at $17 a share and started trading on the Toronto Exchange.

Canada Goose makes $900 down-filled winter coats with coyote fur trim and a distinctive circle patch logo. Founded in a small warehouse in Toronto in 1957 as Metro Sportswear, the company got its start with outerwear such as woolen vests and snowmobile suits. Canada Goose went on to develop a parka for scientists at Antarctica’s McMurdo Station. The first Canadian to reach the summit of Mount Everest was also wearing one of its jackets.

For the fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2017, Canada Goose’s revenue rose 27.2%, to $265.8 million from $209.1 million a year earlier. The company made $0.58 a share, up 31.8% from $0.44.

Highlights of the quarter included an 82.8% increase in Canada Goose’s direct-to-consumer business (online and retail stores). Its sales of $131.6 million almost equaled those of the company’s core wholesale business. In the latest quarter, Canada Goose opened four new retail stores and seven e-commerce sites.

The company now hopes to expand its winter coat offerings as well as expand further into spring and fall outerwear. It also aims to keep widening its apparel beyond outerwear to include knitwear, fleece, footwear and travel gear.

Canada Goose faces considerable challenges. Among them is growing pressure from People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, or PETA, which objects to the company’s use of coyote fur.

Above all, Canada Goose must compete and grow in the fickle and increasingly crowded global market for outerwear. At the same time, the global market for luxury goods is still recovering. The company also needs to boost its sales outside of Canada and major U.S. markets.

In addition, it is unclear whether Canada Goose can make enough profit to justify its current $4.5 billion market cap. The company expects to earn $0.68 a share for all of 2018. The stock trades at a high 69.4 times that estimate.

We don’t recommend shares of Canada Goose.

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