Topic: Daily Advice

“Targets” can cost you money in stock market trading

Investors sometimes ask us why we don’t publish price targets on the stocks we recommend in our newsletters and investment services.

Focusing on targets puts too much emphasis on predictions

We don’t publish targets for several reasons. The main one is that they may lead investors to rely too heavily on predictions, which are the least reliable part of the investment decision-making process.

Big bets on predictions or opinions will always produce inconsistent results. That’s why successful investors recognize that predictions are of limited use in investing profitably.

Instead, we continue to recommend that you focus on investment quality and diversify by following our three-pronged investing philosophy. (See below for more on how this strategy can help you improve your stock market trading profits and lower your risk.)

Selling too early can cause you to miss out on some big stock market trading gains

Another drawback of price targets is that they can spur investors to quit buying or even sell their best picks way too early. By definition, after all, your best picks are those that do way better than you ever expected.

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To make serious profits in stock investing, you need to hang on to your best performers for years. That’s because even good stocks sometimes go sideways for decades, while others turn out to be “ten-baggers,” with gains of 1,000% or more. If you are too quick to sell stocks that have gone up, you may avoid some 20% setbacks. But you’ll also miss out on some 200% gains.

Targets do tend to push up your stock market trading activity and commission expense, because they give you a rationale for selling whenever a stock you own hits its target. This helps explain the popularity of targets in brokerage research.

Use our three-pronged approach to help lower your stock market trading risk

Instead of relying on stock-price targets, we recommend that you follow our three-pronged investment philosophy. That is, invest mainly in well-established companies; spread your money out across most, if not all, of the five main economic sectors (Manufacturing, Resources, Consumer, Finance, Utilities); and downplay stocks that are in the broker/public relations limelight.

That way, you protect yourself from an unforeseeable industry downturn. You also increase your chances of stumbling upon a market superstar — a stock that does much, much better than average.

After all, if it was so easy to predict share-price movements ahead of time, investing would be incredibly profitable and nobody would have to work. Of course, the universe isn’t built that way.

If you’d like me to personally apply my time-tested approach to your investments, you should consider becoming a client of my Successful Investor Wealth Management service. Click here to learn more.

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