Topic: Wealth Management

How one big idea can hurt your portfolio investing results

At Successful Investor Wealth Management, we sometimes get questions from investors who are looking for one great stock pick, or one big idea, that can quickly make them rich.

Beginning investors often start their portfolio investing with these types of ideas. Some aim to stumble upon an investment that provides a 1,000-to-1 return, or find a course or guru that promises instant riches.

For example, in early 2008, many investors’ portfolio investing strategy consisted of loading up on oil and gas stocks. Many made these investments in response to such notions as Peak Oil theory, which argues that world oil production has to peak eventually and go into a terminal decline until the world runs out of oil.

In the summer of 2008, some investors feared we were reaching this peak, and that was why oil prices soared to a record of $147.27 U.S. a barrel. Numerous best-selling books were predicting that oil was headed for $200 U.S. a barrel.

Instead, oil prices fell below $40 in late 2008. The drop was partly caused by falling demand during the recession. As well, rising prices spurred oil exploration and production in places that were previously dismissed as too costly — like the oil-shale deposits in the western U.S. and elsewhere in the world.

Oil’s sharp rise and fall proved yet another old investment adage: The cure for high prices is high prices.

Some big ideas pull investors in more than once

Now, many investors once again think that soaring oil prices are a certainty, and are again plunging into oil stocks as part of their portfolio investing. This time, they believe that a number of factors, including an improving global economy, political instability in oil-producing nations, and rising demand from emerging markets, will be the catalyst for a sharp runup in oil prices.

And peak oil theory still has many adherents. We see well-established oil stocks as a sound addition to a conservative portfolio, up to a limit of perhaps 10% to 15% of portfolio value. But we advise against excess exposure to oils, especially junior or aggressive oil stocks. The future of oil prices is far less certain than Peak Oil theorists make it out to be.

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Patience, consistency and skepticism are at the heart of a successful portfolio investing approach

If you ask investors who have a few decades of successful investing behind them, few if any will credit their portfolio investing success to one big idea. That’s especially true if the technique involves predicting the future, or trying to speculate on the price movements of volatile commodities like oil. Instead, most will talk about everyday qualities like patience, consistency and a healthy sense of skepticism — the kind of qualities that bring success in all aspects of life, not just investing.

These qualities help you apply our three-part formula for portfolio investing success: mainly invest in well-established, high-quality companies; spread your money out across the five main economic sectors; and downplay or stay out of companies that are in the broker/public relations limelight. These are our guiding principles when we manage the portfolios of Successful Investor Wealth Management clients.

If you’d like me to personally apply my value-investing approach to your investments, you should consider becoming a client of my Successful Investor Wealth Management service. Click here to learn more.

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