Profit From Confusion

Article Excerpt

Conservative investors have little need to dabble in risky stocks these days, since many conservative favourites are unduly cheap. BCE Inc. plunged last month after its $42.75 takeover by a private consortium fell through. That happened because BCE failed the ‘solvency test’, which was a condition of the deal. Analysis showed that, post-takeover, BCE’s tangible assets (that is, excluding goodwill or ‘value-as-a-going-concern’) would fall short of BCE’s post-takeover debt of $43 billion. This was mainly because of the plunge in stock-market values since the deal’s June, 2007 signing, near the market peak. Of course, many successful companies would fail this test if you excluded the value of their goodwill. But it only matters here since the deal required a favourable opinion to go through. However, some investors got the mistaken impression that BCE is currently insolvent. In fact, BCE now owes just $11.4 billion — not $43 billion. Its current debt is just two times its annual cash flow of $5.6 billion. This confusion…