The U.S. stock market’s winning run explained

Article Excerpt

The U.S. stock market has performed very strongly over several decades, adding 11.1% per year between 1988 and 2024. At that rate of return, investors would have doubled their money every seven years. The return generated by the S&P 500 index can be explained partly by the strong growth in the profits of the companies held in the index, and partly by a higher valuation placed on these companies by investors. Since 1988, the profits of the S&P 500 companies have grown by 6.8% per year—below the growth in share prices. The difference between the total return of the index and the profit growth is explained by the higher valuation multiple paid by investors—the price-to-earnings multiple doubled over the period. One other factor to consider is that interest rates (as represented by 10-year government bond yields) declined from almost 9% in early 1988 to the current level of just over 4%. Most stocks are helped by lower rates. Investors who expect the U.S. stock market…