U.S. consumers and rising interest rates

Article Excerpt

U.S. retail sales have staged a strong recovery since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Rising employment and greater consumer confidence have helped to lift consumer spending. Still, future increases will in large part depend on how quickly and how high interest rates move up. The U.S. Federal Reserve has now increased its key interest rate four times over the past 15 months, to 1.75%. More rate hikes in 2018 and 2019 are likely. Based on the Fed’s own forecasts, rates could reach about 3% by 2019. Nonetheless, that’s still well below historical averages. Higher interest rates will take more money from the pockets of U.S. consumers, but household debt remains relatively low as a percentage of household income. Currently, retail sales, excluding food services, are almost 5% higher compared to a year earlier. Employment remains strong and has registered an 18.2 million (14%) increase since recent lows in February 2010. With an increasingly tight labour market, wages will also continue to rise. In…