Take care in 2008…and Prepare for an Upturn

Article Excerpt

Like any year, 2008 could turn out good or bad for investors. Everything I see leads me to believe it will be a year of rising stock prices. But it may be a difficult year for aggressive investors who fail to apply our risk-cutting approach to investment. First, the positives. The next U.S. presidential election takes place in November 2008. As long-time readers know, I view the U.S. presidential election year cycle as the single best indicator for North American stock prices — Canada as much as the United States. Historically, stock prices are much likelier to rise in the two years leading up to a U.S. presidential election than in the two subsequent years. Some years deviate from the historical pattern, of course. Markets do sometimes fall in presidential election years, and President Bush’s low approval ratings might suggest it could happen in 2008. However, some of the problems that have dogged the Bush administration are improving. Iraq is becoming more peaceful and potentially…