Two extremes of risk for Birchcliff and Mart

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BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY $9.00 (Toronto symbol BIR; SI Rating: Speculative) (403-261-6401; www.birchcliffenergy.com; Units outstanding: 124.1 million; Market cap: $1.1 billion: No dividends paid) trades at a high multiple to cash flow because investors expect its production to rise as much as 40% over the next year or so. That would substantially boost cash flow. Birchcliff develops, produces and explores for oil and natural gas in Alberta’s Peace River Arch area. In the three months ended December 31, 2009, the company’s cash flow per share was $0.17. That’s down 22.7% from $0.22 a year earlier. That’s because lower gas prices offset higher oil prices in the quarter. Lower gas prices also prompted the company to cut back on drilling. That lowered production by 8.8%, to 10,515 barrels per day from 11,524 barrels. However, Birchcliff’s production now averages about 14,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That’s because it finished the first phase of a new gas plant. It also plans to spend $182 million on…