Topic: How To Invest

What is Pat’s commentary for the week of May 28, 2013?

Article Excerpt

Here’s the text of the quarterly letter I recently sent to our Portfolio Management clients: “Nobody can predict the future, but I suspect we are near an historical turning point in the bond market, and in interest rates generally. This has happened a couple of times in the past century. If I’m right and you fail to adapt to the change, the outcome can be extremely costly. Understanding secular trends Bonds had a lot of investor appeal in the turbulent years of the 1930s and 1940s. Back then, business was weak and volatile, due to the depression and the stress of World War II. Inflation was subdued, due to price controls, high taxes, and political and economic uncertainty. Interest rates on bonds stayed in the 2% to 4% range. Beginning in the mid-1950s, however, everything changed. Business boomed, the stock market began rising in earnest, and interest rates set off on a secular rising trend that lasted a quarter century. Bond yields (based…