Topic: How To Invest

What is Pat’s commentary for the week of January 6, 2015

Article Excerpt

On a day like Monday, when the market falls more than 300 points, here’s a fact to keep firmly in mind: There’s a large random element in day-to-day stock-price movements. Many people spend lots of time studying minute-by-minute or hour-by-hour stock market fluctuations, in hopes of unlocking the “code” that will provide a source of fabulous wealth. These searchers do sometimes uncover repeating patterns. These findings may yield a string of small but seemingly risk-free gains. Unfortunately, the patterns inevitably quit repeating, sometimes with an abrupt reversal. This may happen just when the searchers have become confident enough to double their bets. It takes time to recognize the market’s random element. That’s partly because the media searches for logical explanations of any abrupt market move, and never fails to find them. On Tuesday morning, one recurring explanation for Monday’s drop was the suspicion that the recent plunge in oil prices reflects underlying economic weakness. Of course, that suspicion verges on plausibilitybut a large…