Topic: How To Invest

What is Pat’s commentary for the week of October 25, 2011?

Article Excerpt

Recently, some of our portfolio management clients have asked questions about the Greek situation and where it might lead. “What’s the worst outcome you can think of for the Greek debt crisis? Do you think the Greeks will ever accept austerity and pay what they owe? They are already rioting, and the real budget cuts have not yet begun.” One problem with worst-case-scenario questions like these is that no matter how bad things get, you can always think of something else that can go wrong. That means you’d never get to the worst-case scenario. You’d simply have a never-ending string of bad-case scenarios. Meanwhile, focusing on the worst outcome of a single factor may lead you to overlook the risk or potential of other factors. For instance, some commentators say that Greece is virtually certain to go broke, and that this will inevitably lead to the breakup of the eurozone. My guess (and no one can do more than guess) is…