These three royalty trusts have seen their revenue and cash flow fall because of lower oil and natural-gas prices. Nevertheless, with their reasonable debt and low payout ratios, all three are well positioned to withstand these lower prices — and to prosper when oil and gas rise again.
ARC ENERGY TRUST $17.53 (Toronto symbol AET.UN; Units outstanding: 234 million; Market cap: $4.1 billion; SI Rating: Speculative) produces oil and gas in western Canada. ARC’s average daily production of 64,325 barrels of oil equivalent (this measurement includes natural gas) is weighted 50% to oil and 50% to natural gas.
ARC’s revenue fell 44.8% in the three months ended March 31, 2009, to $225.2 million from $407.9 million. Cash flow per unit fell 44.9%, to $0.54 from $0.98. Lower oil and natural-gas prices were the main reason for the declines.
The trust’s debt remains low, at 17% of its market cap. ARC has just lowered its monthly distribution by 16.7%, to $0.10 from $0.12. The units now yield 6.9%. ARC flowed only 70% of its cash flow through to its unitholders as distributions in the latest quarter. The units trade at 8.2 times ARC’s estimated 2009 cash flow of $2.15 per unit.
ARC Energy Trust is still a buy.
PENGROWTH ENERGY TRUST $9.33 (Toronto symbol PGF.UN; Units outstanding: 257.8 million; Market cap: $2.4 billion; SI Rating: Average) produces oil and gas in western Canada and off the Nova Scotia coast. Its average daily production of 80,284 barrels of oil equivalent is weighted 51% to oil and 49% to natural gas.
Pengrowth’s revenue fell 29.4% in the three months ended March 31, 2009, to $323 million from $457.6 million. Cash flow per unit fell 57.5%, to $0.37 from $0.87. Low oil and gas prices also prompted Pengrowth to cut production.
Pengrowth’s $1.7-billion long-term debt is a somewhat high 71% of its market cap. But it’s just over three years’ cash flow. The trust distributed 82% of its cash flow as distributions in the latest quarter, but it should average about 62% this year. The units trade at 4.2 times Pengrowth’s estimated 2009 cash flow of $2.20 per unit. The trust yields 12.9%.
Pengrowth is still a buy.
PENN WEST ENERGY TRUST $14.88 (Toronto symbol PWT.UN; Units outstanding: 414.2 million; Market cap: $6.2 billion; SI Rating: Speculative) is the largest oil and gas trust in North America.
In the first three months of 2009, lower oil and gas prices pushed down Penn West’s revenue by 47.7%, to $625 million from $1.2 billion. Cash flow per unit fell 50.6%, to $0.87 from $1.76. The trust’s $4.1-billion long-term debt is 66% of its market cap, but just 3.1 times its annual cash flow.
Penn West has average daily production of 180,096 barrels of oil equivalent (weighted 41% to natural gas and 59% to oil). The units yield 11.8%. Penn West pays out around 60% of its cash flow as distributions. It trades at 4.1 times its estimated 2009 cash flow of $3.60 per unit.
Penn West is still a buy.
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Privacy Policy and Terms of Use
The Successful Investor Inc. and its affiliate Successful Investor Wealth Management (referred to hereafter as TSI Network) know that you care how information about you is used and shared, and we appreciate your trust that we will do so carefully and sensibly. This notice describes our privacy policy. By visiting websites owned by or associated with TSI Network, you are accepting the practices described in this Privacy Policy.
This privacy policy is applicable to all TSI Network Visitors, Clients, Employees, Suppliers, Web sites, Management, and all other interested parties. Any links to or from our site are not covered by this policy. We encourage you to read the privacy policies of every site that you visit.
The privacy of the site/store visitor is very important to TSI Network, and is respected at all times. The information we receive from customers helps us to personalize and continually improve your online experience at TSI Network.
We do not collect or disclose personal information, except when it is provided to us voluntarily by the site/store visitor with their consent.
We store subscriber and password files containing personal information securely. These files are stored in secure areas that are not accessible to the general public. We are always working to ensure the security of your personal information.
We are continuously in the process of improving our sites and services. If any new features or policies require a change to this current policy, we will post a clear notice of this change on pages of our site where the privacy policy appears. The principle behind this privacy policy is to collect information with your knowledge and consent.
What personal information do we collect?
The information we receive from customers helps us personalize and continually improve your online experience at TSI Network. TSI Network may collect personal information online for all legal purposes, which include, but are not limited to:
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Does TSI Network Use the Information It Receives?
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Changes to this Policy
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TSI Network may revise this Policy from time to time.
Legal Notices and Disclaimers
The contents of this web site and our publications are based upon sources of information believed to be reliable, but no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. Any opinion reflects the Successful Investor’s judgment at the date of publication and neither the Successful Investor, nor any of its affiliated companies, nor any of their officers, directors or employees, accepts any responsibility in respect of the information or recommendations contained in the publications or on this web site. Moreover, the information or recommendations are subject to change without notice.
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